The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable | 
 enlarge | Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Penguin Books Ltd
Category: Book
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Rating:  20 reviews
Sales Rank: 99
Media: Paperback
Pages: 400
Shipping Weight (lbs): 0.7
Dimensions (in): 7.7 x 5 x 1
ISBN: 0141034599
EAN: 9780141034591
ASIN: 0141034599
Publication Date: February 28, 2008
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| Customer Reviews: Read 15 more reviews...
 Black Swan, Dying Duck July 2, 2008
J. N. Melone (Scotland)
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
This book was actually an enjoyable read. It is witty and humorous, though, as other reviewers point out, Taleb is basically infatuated with himself. But in spite of enjoying the intellectual challenges he throws at you throughout the book, I have to say that there is little real substance here. Why? Because his black swan is a dying duck. He argues that there is such a class of events as black swans - that is to say totally unpredicted events. But that "class" of events doesn't exist. Each one event that is unpredicted is a unique event and shares no common features with other such events apart from unexpectedness. He argues that the future can't be predicted accurately (well we all know that, and all too well, often from bitter experience). So, he argues, planning is virtually futile, because plans can't take account of the totally unexpected. Nothing new there, but applying his own technique of reverse-logic, if a plan is blown off course after 6 years, by an unexpected event, we can say that the plan was accurate enough to work from for 6 years. Is 6 years of workable planning worthless because in the 7th year the plan comes unstuck?
If his message only boils down to a warning not to assume that forecasts will be highly accurate for an indefinite period, then there is nothing new here - how many of us trust the weather forecast for the day after tomorrow? For those readers interested in economics Tony Lawson has done a much more thorough explanation of why economic forecasting is futile (if we expect forecasts to turn out to be accurate). According to Lawson, attempting to forecast is a highly valuable way of learning something about the economic forces that are at work in society, even when the forecasts go wrong. And Taleb's bias against governments and government plans is ridiculous. Governments don't need to know everything about everything in order to plan to build a bridge or a hospital.
 A good hard read June 30, 2008
Mr. Christopher J. Cottell (Birmingham, Uk)
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
I picked this up in a train station as it was top of the best sellers in Smiths and it seemed to be advertised everywhere. After the first few pages I was surprised that such a book was as popular as it is a paper on philosophy and mathematics. However, Taleb's writing is interesting and I was drawn in with the personal accounts, his anger at the bell shaped curve and disgust at those that seek false risk protection from equations they don't understand.
Although my background is not economics this book still relates to the management of risks and specifically changing the way you think about that pile of numbers on the spreadsheet. This is the point of the book as well, not to present the one solution to manage Black Swans (highly improbable events), but to look at your environment and be aware that there are other risks out there and to deal with them in a practicable way.
Above all the book is interesting for exploring the logic of his idea and although he worships a certain Mandelbrot, B the book is actually quite funny in places.
 Not an easy read, over clever with use of language and humour June 15, 2008
N. Ranjha (UK)
2 out of 5 found this review helpful
This book is not an easy read, the writer tends to be over clever than his own good. His writing style is like that of a nervous speaker who speaks fast so fast hoping to blanket his/her non command of the language, with his incomprehensible gibrish and then call it intellectual. I have "observed" this with many immigrants that use really difficult vocabulary, I've found early 19th century narratives more an easy read than any book written by an immigrant be it Taleb, Rushdie or Tariq Ali. ...or maybe I am not that "intellectual" reader this book is targeted for. I gave up after reading the first 50 or so pages and some sections in between.
Catchy Title, engrossing and cynical June 3, 2008
Sarakani (Harrow United Kingdom)
2 out of 2 found this review helpful
I thought I might learn something from this book so finished it in two days including the afternoon of purchasing it. It had a sharp pleasant start, then in the middle it became depressing and towards the end, there was light at the end of the tunnel - phew.
I did not feel that this book had anything earth shatteringly new, although Taleb emphasises his unique, totally unique grasp of the problem as if no one else had seen it before. Of course he does give a few quotes from the Bible, but then he criticizes so much. I can forgive him all his foibles and criticisms bar one. He shot the messenger at the start by saying that the Black Swan is an ugly bird. Why shoot the bird? The bird is an extraordinary, ornithological enigma and indeed as something of a naturalist, the title persuaded me. Taleb does not seem to have a high regard for the natural world and says we should not be too guilty about species extinctions ... Something else that irritated me was when Taleb describes an issue and then says "more on this is chapter X ahead". I could not always say that I held my breath with this prequel. I prefer to eat my food without having to revisit it again and again too many times.
I learned about mediocristan and extrismistan and how bell curves don't help you make accurate financial forecasts. I learned about the "narrative fallacy" and just how bad our assumptions are about how much we know. I learned about bad Nobel prizes in economics and the importance of Mandelbrot and certain apparently vital French thinkers and philosophers including that science guru Popper and Poincare. Finally, I also learned about Lebanon turning from hell to heaven and the tragedy of this all (really interesting). This is my first book by a recent middle eastern intellectual - I don't normally read books from people in this part of the world if only because they have not written on anything that particularly interests me (leaving aside ancient history). This at least makes the book worth it - I hope there are more like it from similar authors.
Taleb is a sycophant when it comes to the USA. I grant him that the USA is a marvelous country, but how about some objectivity about the debt crises that the USA faces and - if he must give us his opinions free of charge, some frank views about politics and religion rather than various intellectual asides?
It's clear that he presents himself and his credentials as a scientist, scholar, polyglot and humanist rather than a businessman and stock market professional. He likes to describe himself as a limousine driver - just to show that he does not suffer fools and would actually prefer to put his feet up with a good book. Taleb is admirable and has chutzpah.
The failings of this book is that Taleb's major philosophical rant - that things are basically uncertain has been the core of ancient religions and philosophies the world over. Leaving aside a Platonic fixity that Taleb uses as a bulwark to his arguments - a huge amount of ancient philosophical and spiritual rhetoric is about uncertainties ... and deep down we know the imperfections and the stench is unbearable. Thanks for teaching me not to believe in the experts - sincerely, but Taleb's veiled dismissal of others in the pre-modern age who basically knew it the way he says it - suggests a lack of extensive reading. Then again, Taleb is selective on his sources and only quotes from works contra his theses (? - something like that).
Yes we are victims of story telling - but actually it's worse. I don't think Taleb does justice to the apparent Socratic quip that "I know one thing and that is I know nothing".
Well, I'm not going to give up on chasing after the rainbow, but thanks for telling me it's a futile enterprise. This will certainly save me money - but don't let's forget that magic sometimes exists as well and luck could do with a fuller treatment, beyond that of chance.
A stimulating scientific exposition that many would benefit from. I found this book very helpful in plotting a direction in life. P.S., The Black Swan remains a beautiful bird.
 Fat Tony and Dr John May 30, 2008
William Petty (Oxford)
1 out of 2 found this review helpful
One gets the feeling that a lot of the negative reviews posted here were written by Dr John characters. NNT is clearly a Fat Tony of a sort, and one gifted with a fine turn of phrase. His book is important, witty and does a pretty comprehensive job of undermining much that economists and other predictive "experts" hold dear. Sure, his book is a bit pompous (although he also has a nice line in self-deprecation, usually expressed through the person of his mother), but we live in an age dominated by tedious editors and pre-packaged phrasing. Enjoy the difference, and the author's admirably cultivated range of reference. (Which admittedly isn't very Fat Tony, but consistency is the bugbear of little minds.) As for those who say that he doesn't have his own alternative to current predictive methodologies to offer, you miss the central point: the prediction racket is a nice little earner, but -- judged on results -- has nothing but the illusion of competence/control to recommend it. This is not very comforting to those who need intellectual water-wings to get them through the day, but hey. Deal.
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