The Battle for Investment Survival

OLUMUYIWA OMOLOLU.


The psychology of a sustained bear market   January 17, 1997
9 out of 10 found this review helpful

This is a book to challenge every preconception you have about investment. The world today is full of buy and hold investors (isn't that how Buffett made his billions?). And it is not hard to be a committed buy and holder when the Dow is fast approaching 7000. Buy and hold has been very profitable and almost any fool could play. But it has not always been so. Sustained bear markets do exist. And in a bear market the mugs in mutual funds become more than passingly skittish. Buy and hold was once unfashionable and it will be again. This is a book (first published in 1934) from the period where buy and hold was as deeply unfashionable as it has been any time in history. Loeb is an extreme pesimist. If the Dow ever sees 4000 again he might become popular. Loeb does not think that fundamental analysis makes any sense. He illustrates with companies which have been overvalued for years at a time and with companies where persistent undervaluation has occured. Loeb does not believe in buying good stocks and holding them. Though buying good stocks before events likely to cause revaluation might be a good idea. Loeb does not believe in diversification. A diversified portfolio will get beaten around in a bear market just as surely as an undiversified one. Moreover, a diversified portfolio will reduce the attention you can pay to individual stocks. Loeb advocates putting all your eggs in one basket and taking extra care to watch the basket. Loeb thinks that if you do not know what to do you should be in cash or near equivalents (short dated high quality paper). If you are in stocks you are in for a hiding. Loeb believes in firm (and irrevocable) stop loss rules. If you buy a good stock and it goes down sell it. Buy and holders might just be inclined to buy some more and suffer more damage at the hands of capricious bears. That these views are deeply unfashionable comes as no surprise when the buy and holders have had such a good run. I come from Australia where the index peaked at 2310 in October 1987 and has only just broken 2400. It spent years in the 1200-1500 range. New Zealand has never broken the pre-crash levels. These are markets where the general populace is scared of stocks. Mutual fund madness is unknown here. I know no Australian who invests in mutuals. I do not think that Loeb is right. But he knows a few things that very few people do know in the US market. Maybe that makes them worth knowing. This is a book about the psychology of a sustained bear market. Dow investors will not recognise it. It is more familiar to us in the Antipodes. Read it so that you will recognise it. And when everyone you know is thinking like Loeb, and the baby boomers have become 'mutual shy', pull out Graham and the other buy and hold bibles and go shopping on Wall Street.