Taking Chances: Winning with Probability

John Haigh is Reader in Mathematics at Sussex University and his book covers a remarkably large number of topics. He tells you how to take chances playing the football pools and about the role of chance in sports such as tennis, golf, cricket and soccer. What points in tennis are most important? If a footballer gets a yellow card in 10 percent of games and is suspended for one game whenever he has accumulated two yellow cards, how often is he suspended? What is the chance that a team that scores the first goal goes on to win? He also writes about casino games, bridge and Monopoly, explaining why orange is the best colour of Monopoly property to own.

The book is practical rather than theoretical. It is written for anyone with a curious mind, aged perhaps 16 and up. It is not a textbook, but introduces concepts, such as random walk and game theory, that are familiar to professional mathematicians. There are technical appendices and test-yourself-quizzes for readers who want to explore more. A bonus is advice on the National Lotteries. Haig will help you choose UK National Lottery numbers that are more likely to give you a large prize. However, with typical vividness, he cautions that if the Lottery had begun with the ancient druids, and your ancestors had bought 50 tickets every week for the last 5000 years, then by now your family could expect to have won the jackpot just once! --Richard Weber

Gambling adepts who mostly don't have a clue about the real odds, or miscalculate odds, might find this book very enlightening (or depressing depending on your preassumptions who are most likely to get smashed after reading this book).

If you are a mathphobic, you'll find the explications clear without being simplistic, and the practical value is excellent.

Adding an appendix in which all the calculations or concepts are mathematically backed up is an excellent surplus. This way, you can adopt the formula's needed to many different questions which involve getting a clear objective view on chance in a wide range of fields.

The title however, might bring false hope to the desperate ones. If anything, the author prooves beyond reasonable doubt how low the odds are exactly you could actually win big in popular gambling games such as the lottery or casino games.

In other cases, like investment, or sports betting, applying the knowledge in this book could be profitable. But, as the name 'probabilitytheory' implies: probability does not equal certainty. However, if you decide to gamble, one can better maximise his chances, what this book will teach you.

If you, like me, thought math and stats were simply not your cup of tea, have no fear. You won't be banging your head against the wall struggling with complicated formula's of which you are trying to figure out the symbols used. The author understands very well the art of explaining the complex in an approachable way which will keep you interested.

If you are a layman and would only buy one book on probabilitytheory, but can not decide which one: I can promise you from what I have read myself so far:

this is surely a very good way to start.


Excellent   February 18, 2005
Mr. M. R. Wassell (Norfolk, England)
1 out of 2 found this review helpful

This is a wonderful book, very well written and informative. I have learnt a great deal about both basic mathematics and probability and it has increased my interest in both! Highly recommended!